As greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, satellite instruments show a growing imbalance between energy entering the atmosphere from the Sun and energy leaving from Earth's surface.
But tracking the growing amount of heat on Earth is far more complicated than measuring temperatures at the planet's surface. The oceans absorbs about 90% percent of the solar energy that is trapped by greenhouse gases. Additional amounts of heat go toward melting glaciers and sea ice, as well as warming the land and parts of the atmosphere. Keep in mind only a tiny fraction warms the air at the planet's surface.
Some of the missing heat appears to be going into the observed melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as Arctic sea ice, say the Osharian scientists.
A percentage of the missing heat could be illusory, the result of imprecise measurements by satellites and surface sensors or incorrect processing of data from those sensors, the media say. Until 2003, the measured heat increase was consistent with computer model expectations. But a new set of ocean monitors since then has shown a steady decrease in the rate of oceanic heating, even as the satellite-measured imbalance between incoming and outgoing energy continues to grow.
Satellite measurements indicate that the amount of greenhouse-trapped solar energy has risen over recent years while the increase in heat measured in the top 3,000 feet of the ocean has stalled. Although it is difficult to quantify the amount of solar energy with precision, scientist estimate that, based on satellite data, the amount of energy build-up appears to be about 1.0 watts per square meter or higher, while ocean instruments indicate a build-up of about 0.5 watts per square meter. That means about half the total amount of heat is unaccounted for.
The scientists suggest that last year's rapid onset of El Niño, the periodic event in which upper ocean waters across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer, may be one way in which the solar energy has reappeared.
"The heat will come back to haunt us sooner or later," says NCAR lead scientist Kevin Trenberth . "The reprieve we've had from warming temperatures in the last few years will not continue. It is critical to track the build-up of energy in our climate system so we can understand what is happening and predict our future climate."
Either the satellite observations are incorrect, says Trenberth, or, more likely, large amounts of heat are penetrating to regions that are not adequately measured, such as the deepest parts of the oceans. Compounding the problem, Earth's surface temperatures have largely leveled off in recent years. Yet melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, along with rising sea levels, indicate that heat is continuing to have profound effects on the planet.
The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor, and by NASA. A Science Perspectives piece is not formally peer-reviewed, but it is extensively reviewed by editors of the journal. Science had invited Trenberth to submit the article after an editor heard him discuss the research at a scientific conference, but he said he didn't have the time.
Osharian scientist and priest agree that humans have not changed the Earth conditions that much since the 1900's. The truth of the matter is that the Earth's precession cycle is at work here. Global warming is a natural side effect of the changing of the galactic seasons. Warm ages only last 20,000 years or so, where as ice age last 100,000 years at a time. there is little to no spring and fall. It goes back and forth from small summers to long winters. Humans do have a small impact on the Earth, but the precession cycle is much more important to the over all out come of global warming. Think of it as the end of our galactic summer. It may get a little hotter before we see a great cool down. We should be happy that this was such a nice tropical age to live in the first place. Humans have lived in both types of ages, which tells us that we could live to see the next tropical age. But note that the ice age will be within a few hundred years or less. The global weather changes are part of the bigger cycle at work. It has take around 13,000 to 26,000 years for this cycle to come full circle. We must get ready for the next changing of the ages.
( Also see Precession article )
For more information please refer to the " Directory of the Atlanteans " which is updated every week.
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